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Glimpse of the Future
In 1900, Florida’s population was about 529,000. In 2000, it was
almost 16 million. By 2030, 13 million more people are expected.
Do Floridians want the state to grow the same way it has in the past? That’s the question College of Design, Construction and Planning researchers Peggy Carr and Paul Zwick pose with Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy — better known as LUCIS.
LUCIS — which Carr and Zwick developed over 10 years — isn’t a crystal ball. What it does is offer scenarios. For example, if a parcel is preserved as conservation land, what are the ripple effects? Conversely, if the same parcel is developed with 2,000 homes, what happens? How do conservation and urban uses pressure agricultural land, which dwindles each year?
“What LUCIS can do is paint a very clear picture for the public of what land use might look like in the future,” Carr says.
“UF researchers estimate that between now and 2060, the amount of urban land in Florida will more than double unless patterns change. That could set the stage for intense conflicts over land use. Resolving those conflicts will be crucial to maintaining a clean and plentiful water supply, providing healthy urban environments and maintaining native biodiversity.
LUCIS has been used in modeling sessions around the state. One of the most successful occurred in Orlando, where representatives of several groups studied four scenarios. The one model rejected: sprawl.
“That’s clearly not the future people want,” Carr says. “Once they can see their options and say, ‘This is not what we want,’ then the challenge is to define what they do want. That will require significant changes in public policies that take us from where we are now to what we want.”
In the past, Florida’s development has been disjointed, an accumulation of decisions about small pieces of land, without regard for the whole. LUCIS shows the cumulative effect of those decisions and how future land use decisions can make things better — or worse.
It’s difficult to arrive at a “common land ethic,” Zwick acknowledges. One reason might be many residents don’t consider Florida home. One of his goals is to use LUCIS to encourage Florida’s diverse populations to discuss land use and arrive at a shared vision for the future.
“LUCIS can help us visualize the future we want,” Zwick says. “Researching that future may require some tough choices; but if we can identify a common goal, we’re halfway there.”
